Governor of Kwara State, Abdulrahman Abdulrasak, is known to be taciturn. But since President Bola Tinubu and APC leaders endorsed Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB) as the party’s consensus candidate for the 2027 gubernatorial election—a decision which truncated his Third Term Agenda via power shift to Kwara North—Abdulrasak has drawn the battle line with the President and his party. Olukayode Thomas looks at who will blink first between the two.
Introduction
Before the news of President Bola Tinubu and APC endorsement of Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB) as the consensus candidate in the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election filtered in via the Director-General of NOA, Lanre Isa-Onilu, a few days ago, the third-term agenda of the state governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrasak, through power shift to Kwara North, seemed cast in stone.
Bolarinwa’s choice delights Kwarans, especially members of the APC, because fielding Abdulrasak’s anointed candidate, Danladi Yakubu, the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, amounts to scoring an own goal.
But for Abdulrasak, a man who is normally reserved, the decision of Tinubu and APC must not stand.
Other States have complied, but only Kwara
The decision of APC to use consensus to pick gubernatorial aspirants was not limited to Kwara State, but only Abdulrasak is daring the President’s decision.
In Lagos State, the media has been reporting the choice of Obafemi Hamzat as the APC consensus gubernatorial candidate for 2027 in the Centre of Excellence; we are yet to read stories of protests against the decision.
In Ogun State, they have accepted the decision of the party that Olamilekan Adeola, aka Yayi, should be the consensus candidate for Ogun 2027.
Instead of protesting or organising rallies against the President and the party’s decision, Iyabo Obasanjo, a former senator and one of Yayi’s fiercest rivals, has this to say on Yayi’s selection as consensus candidate:
‘‘I congratulate him and wish him every success. I also thank the state and national leaders of our great party for the opportunity to participate in the nomination process. Based on these developments, I have decided to suspend my gubernatorial aspiration.
‘‘To my supporters across Ogun State, I am deeply grateful for your calm, steadfast support and unwavering trust throughout this journey. Together, we move forward with patience, strength and hope.’’
In Oyo State, it is only members of the PDP who are uncomfortable with the selection of Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli as the APC consensus candidate.
All party members are already congratulating Alli, and they are thanking the President and the party for their decision.
In Osun, when the elders summoned Iyiola Omisore, the strongman of Ife/Ijesha politics, and told him the President and party had settled for Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji as the party’s consensus candidate, he agreed with the decision.
The Ekiti State governor and other first-term governors were given an automatic ticket for the second term without any rancour.
So far, only Abdulrasak is daring the President and the party.
Kwara North are behind the President’s choice
For APC caucus groups in Kwara North, the choice of Bolarinwa as the party’s consensus candidate for the 2027 election by Tinubu and the APC is in the interest of Kwarans.
In a statement signed by representatives of the five local governments in Kwara North—Mayaki Baba Muhammed (Edu LGA), Tsado Joseph (Patigi LGA), Bolaji Afolabi (Moro LGA), Mohammed Abass (Kaiama LGA), and Luqman Sabi (Baruten LGA)—read:
‘‘We, the Kwara North Caucus of the All Progressives Congress (APC), wish to categorically dissociate ourselves from the recent press statements and hastily organised rallies by a few individuals claiming to speak for our region in support of the governorship aspiration of Kwara North.
‘‘We firmly believe that governance and political leadership must transcend ethnic, tribal, or sectional considerations. The focus must remain on capacity, competence, credibility, and proven antecedents—qualities that not only win elections but also guarantee inclusive governance and equitable development across all regions of Kwara State.
‘‘In light of these principles, we have resolved to align with a candidate whose track record speaks for itself—Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, a leader of proven integrity, administrative competence, and unifying capacity. His extensive experience across legislative and executive roles, coupled with his demonstrated ability to lead and deliver—most notably during the historic O to Ge Revolution—positions him as a credible and formidable candidate.’’
Why the Consensus Candidate is the best option for Kwara APC
Apart from the fact that Section 84 (2) of the new Electoral Act stipulates that the procedure for the nomination of candidates by political parties shall be by either direct primaries or consensus, the consensus arrangement also curbs wasteful spending and the bad blood from losers who either quit the party after spending so much on the primary or stay in the party and work for the opposition.
Before a consensus candidate is agreed on, party elders gather intelligence and do background checks on the leading candidates. They look at their acceptance within the party and the general populace, their character and integrity, their ability to coordinate and finance the campaign, their programmes, among others.
In the case of Kwara State, all and sundry know that Governor Abdulrasak has not only eroded the gains of O to Ge, but he has made many enemies for himself and the party.
Apart from beautification work in Ilorin GRA and Unity Road, Post Office, Abdulrasak has taken Kwara backwards.
From the lack of tangible projects in Kwara South and North to the education crisis in Kwara Central between Christians and Muslims,
Besides the above, he also scored zero in terms of human capital development.
He abhors intellectualism and cannot work with people with strong personalities, and this probably informs his decision to give youths, who are yes-men and women, political positions.
His poor performance must have informed Tinubu and the APC to settle for a consensus candidate.
Abdulrasak mind the gap, Tinubu is politically savvy
As he dares the Lion of Bourdillon, Abdulrasak must be careful because Tinubu is not just a marathoner when it comes to political battles; he is politically savvy and has never lost a battle against a governor, even when he was an ordinary citizen.
Examples of governors who dared Tinubu but later succumbed to his superior arguments include the governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara, who initially resisted Tinubu’s decision to use diplomacy to resolve the crisis between him and his godfather, Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike.
Fubara’s defiance led to a political crisis in the state, including the burning of the State House of Assembly and a split among lawmakers.
The crisis led to the declaration of a state of emergency. Fubara was compelled to visit the President in London to secure his mandate back.
Even most of the 11 PDP governors who dragged the federal government to the Supreme Court over the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers are now in the APC.
The Northern Governors’ Forum, led by Gombe State Governor Muhammed Inuwa Yahaya, initially opposed the tax reform bills proposed by Tinubu.
They argued that the reforms, particularly the derivation-based Value Added Tax (VAT), disadvantaged the North.
But today, not only has the tax reform bill been passed into law, but most of the governors have left the PDP to join the APC.
Abdulrasak should take a cue from ‘brother colleague’ Abiodun
If these examples are far from home, Abdulrasak should take a cue from his “brother colleague”, Dapo Abiodun, the governor of Ogun State.
Like Abdulrasak, Abiodun had a successor in mind, but once the President and the APC raised “Yayi’s” hand as the consensus governorship candidate, Abiodun complied.
More painful for Abiodun was the decision to give his rival, Gbenga Daniel, the Ogun East senatorial ticket.
Abiodun has always been an Abuja man, so returning to the Senate was something he looked forward to. Still, the party hierarchy gave the ticket to Daniel, whom he believed supplanted him to pick the PDP governorship ticket in 2003.
In 2022, when Daniel wanted to run for the Senate, Abiodun wanted to block him, but fortunately for Daniel, the national leadership of the party held the primaries.
For the 2027 ticket, Abiodun did everything to break down Daniel, including the demolition of his wife’s building in Sagamu, just as Abdulrasak demolished Moshood Mustapha Crown Plaza, halted the constituency projects of Soliu Mustapha, and demolished Ile Arugbo.
But the moment Tinubu and APC decided that Daniel should return to the Senate from Ogun East, Abiodun surrendered.
Abdulrasak should, in his own interest, learn from his friend.
Abdulrasak should remember how he emerged in 2019
A Yoruba adage says ‘Oore pe, omo enia gbagbe’ (‘When a favour lasts too long, a human forgets it’).
Abdulrasak had probably forgotten how he emerged as the APC gubernatorial candidate in 2018.
He forgets that he did win the party primary and that Tinubu, whom he is opposing today, and Adams Oshiomhole made him the consensus candidate.
He has also forgotten that Bolarinwa, whose candidacy he is opposing now, not only led the campaign that led to his election, but also had to kneel to beg members aggrieved by the outcome of the primary to respect the decision of the party and back Abdulrasak.
Abdulrasak should also be reminded that he has a lot to lose by challenging the decision of his party.
Secondly, nothing guarantees his third-term agenda, as governors before him who ensured their favourites succeed them fell apart before anybody could say jack.
Examples include Godswill Akpabio and Emmanuel Udom in Akwa Ibom, Peter Odili and Rotimi Amaechi in Rivers, Abubakar Atiku and Boni Haruna in Adamawa, Adams Oshiomhole and Godwin Obaseki in Edo, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Abdullahi Ganduje in Kano, Orji Uzor Kalu and Theodore Orji in Abia.
Others include Nasir el-Rufai and Uba Sani in Kaduna, Danjuma Goje and Ibrahim Dankwambo in Gombe State.
So who will blink at last? My crystal ball tells me it will be Abdulrasak, but it should be done before it is too late, because if his shenanigans make APC lose Kwara, it will not be funny.
Because if APC lose Kwara, all those saying ma jolo mo wo ehin re will put their legs in reverse gear when the Lion of Bourdillon roars.
Olukayode Thomas, a native of Offa, is based in Lagos.