BY SEGUN ADEOYE
Politics within the Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has always been shaped by alliances, influence and carefully negotiated political interests. However, the recent primary election for the Agege Constituency I seat in the Lagos State House of Assembly has once again exposed the delicate balance of power within the ruling party.
At the centre of the controversy is the defeat of Ganiyu Kola Egunjobi, widely regarded by many party members as the preferred candidate of the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Obasa. Instead, Oluwagbenga Michael Abiola emerged as the declared winner, a development that sparked protests, allegations of irregularities and fresh debate over the internal politics of the APC in Lagos.
For many political observers, the outcome was about more than the emergence of a House of Assembly candidate. It also reflected the shifting alliances and political calculations currently shaping the ruling party in Lagos State.
A Primary That Sparked Controversy
The declaration of Abiola as the winner was immediately rejected by supporters of Egunjobi, who alleged that the announced result did not reflect the wishes of delegates who participated in the primary.
The protesters called for a review of the outcome, insisting that the exercise lacked transparency and fairness. However, the APC has not officially confirmed the allegations or indicated any plan to review the result.
The controversy did not end at the venue of the primary.
Supporters from Agege later stormed the APC state secretariat in Ikeja, calling on the Lagos State Executive Committee and the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) to intervene. Carrying placards and chanting slogans, they demanded what they described as a transparent review of the exercise.
Even with the protests, some party insiders claimed that the outcome may have been influenced by political decisions taken before delegates eventually voted. Those claims, however, have not been independently verified.
Beyond the Ballot: The Politics of Influence
Findings indicate that the primary became a contest of influence among different political blocs within the Lagos APC.
According to sources familiar with developments within the party, some influential figures were reluctant to support another candidate considered to be closely aligned with Speaker Obasa’s political structure.
Although these claims remain unverified, they reflect a growing perception among some party members that internal political calculations played a significant role in determining the outcome of the primary.
Political observers believe the result may also signal an attempt by influential stakeholders to redefine the balance of power within the Lagos APC.
A Shadow Cast by Previous Political Battles
The events surrounding the primary cannot be completely separated from the political crisis that surrounded the Speaker last year.
Obasa faced one of the biggest challenges of his political career when members of the Lagos State House of Assembly moved to remove him from office over allegations including financial mismanagement, lack of transparency, authoritarian leadership style and restrictions on media access to the Assembly.
Although the allegations generated widespread public attention, they remain allegations, and no court has found him guilty of any related offence.
The impeachment process was eventually halted following the intervention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, leading to a political settlement that saw Obasa retain his position as Speaker.
While the crisis was resolved politically, many analysts believe it altered existing alliances within the Lagos APC and weakened the Speaker’s political influence in some quarters.
The Burden of Political Associations
Another issue repeatedly mentioned by party insiders is the political perception surrounding individuals associated with the Speaker’s political camp.
Attention has focused on Chief Akinropo, an influential APC leader in Agege who is widely regarded as one of Obasa’s close political allies. His name has featured in public discussions relating to allegations arising from the 2023 killing of a young man, an incident some people described as politically motivated.
However, no court has convicted him of any offence, and he remains legally presumed innocent.
Nevertheless, party sources claimed the controversy has continued to generate political backlash, with rival groups allegedly using the issue to weaken politicians perceived to belong to Obasa’s political camp.
According to the same sources, Egunjobi’s perceived closeness to that political structure may have influenced the calculations of some stakeholders during the primary.
Lingering Questions Over Political Succession
The outcome of the primary has also revived discussions about succession politics in Agege.
During the last local government election, Obasa’s political camp came under criticism following the emergence of his son, Ganiyu Venod Obasa, as the APC vice-chairmanship candidate. Following the resignation of the council chairman on health grounds, Ganiyu later assumed office as chairman.
While supporters maintained that the process followed laid-down party procedures, critics argued that it further strengthened the perception of growing political influence within a single political family.
Political analysts believe those perceptions may also have contributed to the resistance witnessed during the Assembly primary.
What Next for the APC?
Despite the protests by supporters of Egunjobi, party insiders believe the chances of the National Working Committee overturning the declared result remain slim.
According to the sources, influential leaders within the APC appear to have accepted the outcome as part of the ongoing political realignment within the Lagos chapter of the party.
Whether that eventually happens remains to be seen.
One thing, however, appears clear. The Agege primary has gone beyond the emergence of a House of Assembly candidate. It has become another reflection of the power struggle, political negotiations and shifting alliances that continue to define politics within the Lagos APC.
As preparations for the next election gather momentum, developments in Agege may provide an early indication of how political influence within the ruling party is changing—and how even long-established political structures can be affected by evolving political realities.